HOME
July 2, 2022 (15:26:13)
Both Close
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
Demographically Favorable Toss-ups
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
Demographically Unfavorable Toss-ups
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
Demographically Vulnerable But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
Demographically Vulnerable But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
Demographically Surprising But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
Demographically Surprising But Historically Safe R
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
Safe/Safe
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
AZ-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
AZ-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
CA-41
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CT-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
FL-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
IA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
KS-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KY-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MI-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
MI-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MI-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
MN-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
NC-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
NC-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
NH-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
NJ-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
NY-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
OH-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
OH-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OR-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
PA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
PA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
PA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
VA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
WA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
WA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CA-40
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA-45
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-49
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CO-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
FL-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
FL-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
IA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MI-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
NE-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
NY-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
NY-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
NY-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
OH-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AZ-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
MN-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MN-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MT-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
NJ-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
NY-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
PA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
WI-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
CA-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CO-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
CO-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
CT-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
FL-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
FL-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
GA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
IL-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
IN-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
MA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
MI-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MS-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
NC-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
NJ-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NJ-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
NJ-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
NJ-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NM-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
NV-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
NV-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
NY-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
PA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
PA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
TX-35
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX-37
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
WA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WI-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
AZ-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
CA-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
FL-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
FL-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
FL-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
FL-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
FL-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
GA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
IA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KS-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MD-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
ME-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MN-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MO-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
NC-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NE-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
NJ-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
OH-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
SC-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
SC-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
TX-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
TX-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
TX-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
UT-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
VA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
WI-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WI-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
WI-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
CA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
CA-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
IL-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
ME-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
NM-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
OR-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
FL-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
PA-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242816816
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
TX-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX-34
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
FL-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
OH-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
SC-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AR-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
AZ-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
CA-48
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CO-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
FL-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
FL-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
GA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
NH-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
NY-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
OH-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TN-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
TX-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
TX-38
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
AL-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
AZ-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
CA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
CA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
CA-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-29
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-30
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA-31
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-32
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA-33
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA-34
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-35
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-36
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
CA-37
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA-38
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-39
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-42
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA-43
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA-44
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA-46
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
CA-47
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA-50
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
CA-51
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA-52
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CO-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
CO-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
CT-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
CT-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
FL-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
FL-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
FL-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
FL-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
FL-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
GA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
GA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
HI-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
HI-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
IL-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
IL-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
IL-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
IL-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
IL-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
IL-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
IL-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)74912111745
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
IL-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
IL-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
IL-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
IL-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
IL-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
IN-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
KY-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
MA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
MA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
MA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
MD-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
MD-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
MD-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
MD-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
MD-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MI-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
MI-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MI-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MN-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MO-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MO-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
NC-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
NC-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
NC-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
NC-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
NC-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
NJ-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NJ-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
NJ-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
NJ-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
NV-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
NY-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
NY-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
NY-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
NY-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102111216710
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
NY-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92102011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
NY-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
NY-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NY-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
NY-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NY-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
NY-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NY-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
NY-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
NY-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NY-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
OH-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
OH-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
OR-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
OR-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
OR-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
PA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
PA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
PA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
PA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)47842981899
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
RI-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
RI-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
SC-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
TN-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
TX-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX-29
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX-30
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX-32
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
TX-33
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
TX-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
VA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)4374891177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
VA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
VA-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
VA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
WA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
WA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
WA-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WA-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)345791010261610
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
WA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
WI-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
AL-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
AL-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
AL-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
AL-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
AL-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35537825077
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
AR-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
AR-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AR-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
AZ-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
AZ-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
CA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
CA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
CA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CO-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
CO-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
FL-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
FL-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
FL-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
FL-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
FL-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
FL-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
FL-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
FL-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
FL-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
GA-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366423
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
GA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
GA-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614425
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
ID-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
ID-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
IL-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IL-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
IL-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IN-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
IN-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
IN-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
IN-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
IN-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
IN-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
KS-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
KS-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KY-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
KY-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
KY-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
MI-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MI-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MI-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
MI-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
MN-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MO-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
MO-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MO-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MO-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MO-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MS-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
MS-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169394
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
MS-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
MT-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
NC-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
NC-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
NC-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
NC-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
NE-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
NV-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
NY-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
NY-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
NY-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
OH-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
OH-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
OH-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
OH-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
OH-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
OK-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
OK-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
OK-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
OK-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
OK-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
OR-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
PA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
PA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
PA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
PA-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
PA-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
PA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
SC-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
SC-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
SC-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
TN-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
TN-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823152862
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
TN-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
TN-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TN-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
TN-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2632532452
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
TX-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4061815253
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
TX-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
TX-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
TX-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
TX-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946518
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
TX-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630267
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
TX-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
TX-31
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763467914
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
TX-36
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
TX-04
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
TX-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4772327554
TX-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX-08
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828419636
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823256009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323932
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5981916534
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
UT-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113773032
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
UT-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
UT-03
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20239810515
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
VA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252633462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31433636948
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
VA-06
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
VA-09
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
WA-05
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
WI-07
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912381
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
WV-01
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
WV-02
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312322962
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392

Want to read more from Blue Ripple? Visit our website, sign up for email updates, and follow us on Twitter and FaceBook. Folks interested in our data and modeling efforts should also check out our Github page.